Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)
Forward Air Corporation is a light freight logistics and transportation company in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 95.26% per annum.
- FWRD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $15.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.06 (11.78%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.06% per annum.
- FWRD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.82 (5.02%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FWRD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 11, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 18.2322
b = -0.0084
s = 0.0654
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0084) – 1
= -95.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0654) – 1
= 29.88%
December 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2322 + -0.0084 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(4.3853)
= $80.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2322 + -0.0084 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(4.1238)
= $61.80
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2322 + -0.0084 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(3.1404)
= $23.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2322 + -0.0084 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(2.8790)
= $17.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 95.26% per annum.
- FWRD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $15.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.06 (11.78%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2024
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 26.2602
b = -0.0128
s = 0.0695
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0128) – 1
= -99.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0695) – 1
= 32.04%
April 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(26.2602 + -0.0128 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.5141)
= $33.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(26.2602 + -0.0128 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.2362)
= $25.44
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(26.2602 + -0.0128 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(3.0664)
= $21.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(26.2602 + -0.0128 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(2.7884)
= $16.26
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.06% per annum.
- FWRD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.82 (5.02%).