Stock Price Trends

Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)

forward air corporation is a leading provider of time-definite surface transportation and related logistics services to the north american air freight and expedited ltl market. we provide scheduled surface transportation of cargo as a cost effective, reliable alternative to air transportation. we transport air freight that must be delivered at a specific time, but is less time-sensitive than traditional integrated services. in the past decade, we have greatly expanded our service offerings to include an array of logistics services, including pick-up and delivery, intermodal drayage, pool distribution, and specialized temperature-controlled logistics services. our network of freight terminals are located on or near airports in 92 u.s. and canadian cities, including our central sorting facility in columbus, ohio and 11 regional sort centers that create the most effective linehaul network in the industry.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.71% per annum.
  • FWRD price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $32.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.10 (13.72%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.83% per annum.
  • FWRD price at the close of March 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.12 (3.39%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FWRD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

January 31, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

February 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.71% per annum.
  • FWRD price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $32.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.10 (13.72%).

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

December 19, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

February 29, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.83% per annum.
  • FWRD price at the close of March 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.12 (3.39%).