Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) is a leading provider of logistics and transportation services specializing in light freight across the United States and Canada. Headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee, the company offers a comprehensive suite of services, including expedited ground transportation, freight consolidation, and airport-to-airport intermodal services. With a strong emphasis on operational efficiency and customer satisfaction, Forward Air has established itself as a key player in the logistics sector, positioning itself for continued growth in the evolving transportation landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 319.90% per annum.
- FWRD price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $25.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.78 (12.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.60% per annum.
- FWRD price at the close of February 27, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.37 (1.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FWRD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2025
End date: February 11, 2026
a = -3.6914
b = 0.0039
s = 0.0546
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 319.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0546) – 1
= 24.43%
October 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6914 + 0.0039 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(3.0535)
= $21.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6914 + 0.0039 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(2.8349)
= $17.03
February 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6914 + 0.0039 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(3.5252)
= $33.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6914 + 0.0039 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(3.3067)
= $27.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 319.90% per annum.
- FWRD price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $25.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.78 (12.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2025
End date: February 27, 2026
a = 1.0369
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0483
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0483) – 1
= 21.31%
December 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0369 + 0.0013 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.3271)
= $27.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0369 + 0.0013 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.1339)
= $22.96
February 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0369 + 0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.4383)
= $31.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0369 + 0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(3.2451)
= $25.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.60% per annum.
- FWRD price at the close of February 27, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.37 (1.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.