CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW)
C.H. Robinson is an American Fortune 500 provider of multimodal transportation services and third-party logistics (3PL). The company offers freight transportation, transportation management, brokerage and warehousing. It offers truckload, less than truckload, air freight, intermodal, and ocean transportation.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.48% per annum.
- CHRW price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $81.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.37% per annum.
- CHRW price at the close of May 9, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.37 (3.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHRW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2022
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 5.0752
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0634
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0634) – 1
= 28.88%
March 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0752 + -0.0004 × 1,042 + 2 × 0.0634)
= Exp(4.7888)
= $120.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0752 + -0.0004 × 1,042 – 2 × 0.0634)
= Exp(4.5351)
= $93.23
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0752 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0634)
= Exp(4.4779)
= $88.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0752 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0634)
= Exp(4.2242)
= $68.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.48% per annum.
- CHRW price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $81.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 27, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 5.8065
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0465
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0465) – 1
= 20.43%
April 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8065 + -0.0008 × 1,448 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.6850)
= $108.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8065 + -0.0008 × 1,448 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.4991)
= $89.94
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8065 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.3680)
= $78.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8065 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(4.1821)
= $65.50
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.37% per annum.
- CHRW price at the close of May 9, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.37 (3.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.