FedEx Corporation (FDX)
FedEx Corporation, formerly Federal Express Corporation and later FDX Corporation, is an American multinational delivery services company headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.22% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $265.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $82.49 (44.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.92% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $114.95 (30.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2020
End date: March 16, 2023
a = 5.8713
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1121
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1121) – 1
= 56.60%
September 1, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y340)
= Exp(a + b × X340 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8713 + -0.0005 × 491 + 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(5.8576)
= $349.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y340)
= Exp(a + b × X340 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8713 + -0.0005 × 491 – 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(5.4090)
= $223.41
March 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8713 + -0.0005 × 1,417 + 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(5.4087)
= $223.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8713 + -0.0005 × 1,417 – 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(4.9602)
= $142.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.22% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $265.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $82.49 (44.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: September 1, 2023
a = 2.8192
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0411
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 89.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0411) – 1
= 17.89%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8192 + 0.0018 × 1,236 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(5.0735)
= $159.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8192 + 0.0018 × 1,236 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(4.9090)
= $135.50
September 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8192 + 0.0018 × 1,586 + 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(5.6886)
= $295.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8192 + 0.0018 × 1,586 – 2 × 0.0411)
= Exp(5.5240)
= $250.64
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 89.92% per annum.
- FDX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $114.95 (30.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.