Expeditors International of Washington Inc (EXPD)
Expeditors (Expeditors International of Washington) is an American worldwide logistics and freight forwarding company headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.42% per annum.
- EXPD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $118.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.38 (37.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.10% per annum.
- EXPD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXPD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: November 9, 2022
a = 5.1392
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0759
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0759) – 1
= 35.46%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y472)
= Exp(a + b × X472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 683 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1392 + -0.0005 × 683 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.9774)
= $145.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y472)
= Exp(a + b × X472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 683 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1392 + -0.0005 × 683 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.6739)
= $107.12
November 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1392 + -0.0005 × 1,276 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.7053)
= $110.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y882)
= Exp(a + b × X882 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1392 + -0.0005 × 1,276 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.4018)
= $81.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.42% per annum.
- EXPD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $118.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.38 (37.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2022
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 4.2173
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0556
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.90%
February 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y699)
= Exp(a + b × X699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2173 + 0.0003 × 1,011 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.6694)
= $106.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y699)
= Exp(a + b × X699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2173 + 0.0003 × 1,011 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.4471)
= $85.38
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2173 + 0.0003 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.9365)
= $139.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2173 + 0.0003 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.7142)
= $111.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.10% per annum.
- EXPD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.