United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 122.03% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of January 14, 2026 was $107.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 723.78% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of January 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 8, 2025
End date: January 14, 2026
a = 0.6748
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0245
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 122.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0245) – 1
= 10.32%
September 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6748 + 0.0022 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(4.4325)
= $84.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6748 + 0.0022 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(4.3343)
= $76.27
January 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6748 + 0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(4.7122)
= $111.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6748 + 0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(4.6140)
= $100.89
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 122.03% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of January 14, 2026 was $107.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 29, 2025
End date: January 14, 2026
a = -5.8531
b = 0.0058
s = 0.0133
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0058) – 1
= 723.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0133) – 1
= 5.47%
December 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.8531 + 0.0058 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(4.6248)
= $101.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.8531 + 0.0058 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(4.5715)
= $96.69
January 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.8531 + 0.0058 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(4.7172)
= $111.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.8531 + 0.0058 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0133)
= Exp(4.6639)
= $106.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 723.78% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of January 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.