United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.59% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $127.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.15 (0.12%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.60% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 28, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.4229
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0638
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.06%
April 28, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4229 + -0.0002 × 642 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(5.3924)
= $219.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4229 + -0.0002 × 642 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(5.1373)
= $170.26
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4229 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(5.1011)
= $164.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4229 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.8460)
= $127.23
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.59% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $127.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.15 (0.12%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.8220
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0483
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0483) – 1
= 21.30%
January 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8220 + -0.0005 × 1,285 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(5.2794)
= $196.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8220 + -0.0005 × 1,285 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(5.0863)
= $161.79
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8220 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(5.0103)
= $149.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8220 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0483)
= Exp(4.8172)
= $123.62
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.60% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.