United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.91% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $96.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.66 (9.08%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.40% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.93 (3.90%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 22, 2021
End date: April 3, 2025
a = 5.4235
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0612
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0612) – 1
= 27.74%
October 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4235 + -0.0003 × 540 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(5.3583)
= $212.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4235 + -0.0003 × 540 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(5.1135)
= $166.25
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4235 + -0.0003 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.9209)
= $137.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4235 + -0.0003 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(4.6761)
= $107.35
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.91% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $96.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.66 (9.08%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 5.6783
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0554
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0554) – 1
= 24.83%
January 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y693)
= Exp(a + b × X693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,006 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6783 + -0.0005 × 1,006 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(5.2624)
= $192.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y693)
= Exp(a + b × X693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,006 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6783 + -0.0005 × 1,006 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(5.0406)
= $154.56
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6783 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(4.8335)
= $125.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6783 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(4.6117)
= $100.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.40% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.93 (3.90%).