United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.92% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $147.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.95% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 28, 2021
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 5.4325
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0637
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0637) – 1
= 29.04%
April 28, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y500)
= Exp(a + b × X500 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4325 + -0.0002 × 726 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(5.3958)
= $220.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y500)
= Exp(a + b × X500 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4325 + -0.0002 × 726 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(5.1408)
= $170.86
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4325 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(5.1470)
= $171.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4325 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(4.8920)
= $133.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.92% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $147.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 5.8920
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0501
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0501) – 1
= 22.20%
January 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8920 + -0.0005 × 1,369 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.2958)
= $199.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8920 + -0.0005 × 1,369 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.0954)
= $163.26
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8920 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(5.0633)
= $158.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8920 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0501)
= Exp(4.8629)
= $129.40
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.95% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.