Stock Price Trends

GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.82% per annum.
  • GXO price at the close of December 3, 2024 was $59.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.62 (7.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.46% per annum.
  • GXO price at the close of December 3, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.26 (11.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GXO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: January 30, 2024

a = 3.4704

b = 0.0007

s = 0.1114

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1114) – 1
= 56.15%

June 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4704 + 0.0007 × 323 + 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(3.9310)
= $50.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4704 + 0.0007 × 323 – 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(3.4853)
= $32.63

January 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 922 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4704 + 0.0007 × 922 + 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(4.3719)
= $79.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y634)
= Exp(a + b × X634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 922 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4704 + 0.0007 × 922 – 2 × 0.1114)
= Exp(3.9262)
= $50.72

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.82% per annum.
  • GXO price at the close of December 3, 2024 was $59.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.62 (7.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 10, 2023
End date: October 9, 2024

a = 4.4566

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0575

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0575) – 1
= 25.84%

May 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y453)
= Exp(a + b × X453 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4566 + -0.0005 × 657 + 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(4.2478)
= $69.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y453)
= Exp(a + b × X453 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4566 + -0.0005 × 657 – 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(4.0179)
= $55.59

October 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4566 + -0.0005 × 1,175 + 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(3.9925)
= $54.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y809)
= Exp(a + b × X809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4566 + -0.0005 × 1,175 – 2 × 0.0575)
= Exp(3.7627)
= $43.06

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.46% per annum.
  • GXO price at the close of December 3, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.26 (11.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.