GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.10% per annum.
- GXO price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $53.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.39 (0.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.99% per annum.
- GXO price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GXO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: February 16, 2024
a = 3.4884
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1118
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1118) – 1
= 56.42%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4884 + 0.0007 × 326 + 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(3.9403)
= $51.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4884 + 0.0007 × 326 – 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(3.4929)
= $32.88
February 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4884 + 0.0007 × 939 + 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(4.3693)
= $78.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4884 + 0.0007 × 939 – 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(3.9219)
= $50.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.10% per annum.
- GXO price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $53.13 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.39 (0.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 4.6501
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0544
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0544) – 1
= 24.33%
June 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y471)
= Exp(a + b × X471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6501 + -0.0007 × 684 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(4.2694)
= $71.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y471)
= Exp(a + b × X471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6501 + -0.0007 × 684 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(4.0516)
= $57.49
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y704)
= Exp(a + b × X704 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6501 + -0.0007 × 1,022 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(4.0274)
= $56.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y704)
= Exp(a + b × X704 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6501 + -0.0007 × 1,022 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(3.8096)
= $45.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.99% per annum.
- GXO price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.