GXO Logistics Inc (GXO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.87% per annum.
- GXO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $55.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.03 (1.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.83% per annum.
- GXO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.90 (3.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GXO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: February 16, 2024
a = 3.4920
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1122
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1122) – 1
= 56.63%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4920 + 0.0007 × 323 + 2 × 0.1122)
= Exp(3.9409)
= $51.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4920 + 0.0007 × 323 – 2 × 0.1122)
= Exp(3.4921)
= $32.86
February 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4920 + 0.0007 × 939 + 2 × 0.1122)
= Exp(4.3690)
= $78.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y647)
= Exp(a + b × X647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4920 + 0.0007 × 939 – 2 × 0.1122)
= Exp(3.9202)
= $50.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.87% per annum.
- GXO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $55.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.03 (1.83%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2023
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 4.6157
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0519
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0519) – 1
= 23.05%
June 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6157 + -0.0007 × 680 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.2607)
= $70.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6157 + -0.0007 × 680 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.0533)
= $57.59
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y746)
= Exp(a + b × X746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6157 + -0.0007 × 1,085 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.9875)
= $53.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y746)
= Exp(a + b × X746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6157 + -0.0007 × 1,085 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.7801)
= $43.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.83% per annum.
- GXO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.90 (3.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.