Stock Price Trends

Hibbett Sports Inc (HIBB)

Hibbett Sports, Inc., is a retailer of athletic-inspired fashion products. The company is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.72% per annum.
  • HIBB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $87.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.86% per annum.
  • HIBB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HIBB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 2, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 4.1470

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0002

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0002) – 1
= 0.10%

July 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1470 + 0.0002 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0002)
= Exp(4.4682)
= $87.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1470 + 0.0002 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0002)
= Exp(4.4672)
= $87.12

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1470 + 0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0002)
= Exp(4.4723)
= $87.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1470 + 0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0002)
= Exp(4.4713)
= $87.47

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.72% per annum.
  • HIBB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $87.49 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 10, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 4.1873

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0002

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 5.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0002) – 1
= 0.09%

July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1873 + 0.0002 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0002)
= Exp(4.4698)
= $87.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1873 + 0.0002 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0002)
= Exp(4.4689)
= $87.26

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1873 + 0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0002)
= Exp(4.4721)
= $87.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1873 + 0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0002)
= Exp(4.4713)
= $87.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.86% per annum.
  • HIBB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.