Mattel Inc (MAT)
Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.30% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $15.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.79% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2021
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.1180
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0897
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0897) – 1
= 43.17%
February 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y209)
= Exp(a + b × X209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + -0.0001 × 303 + 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(3.2609)
= $26.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y209)
= Exp(a + b × X209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + -0.0001 × 303 – 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(2.9021)
= $18.21
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(3.0778)
= $21.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(2.7190)
= $15.16
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.30% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $15.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 13.6413
b = -0.0060
s = 0.0629
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0060) – 1
= -88.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.61%
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6413 + -0.0060 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.2810)
= $26.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6413 + -0.0060 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.0294)
= $20.69
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6413 + -0.0060 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.8253)
= $16.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6413 + -0.0060 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.5738)
= $13.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.79% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.