Mattel Inc (MAT)
Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.37% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $18.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.15% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2021
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.1619
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0903
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0903) – 1
= 43.52%
February 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y443)
= Exp(a + b × X443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1619 + -0.0001 × 644 + 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(3.2636)
= $26.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y443)
= Exp(a + b × X443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1619 + -0.0001 × 644 – 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(2.9023)
= $18.22
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1619 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(3.1190)
= $22.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1619 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(2.7578)
= $15.76
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.37% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $18.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 10, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.8396
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0430
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0430) – 1
= 18.77%
July 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8396 + -0.0005 × 1,512 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(3.1463)
= $23.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8396 + -0.0005 × 1,512 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(2.9743)
= $19.57
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8396 + -0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(2.9855)
= $19.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8396 + -0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(2.8134)
= $16.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.15% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.