Stock Price Trends

Mattel Inc (MAT)

Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.30% per annum.
  • MAT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $15.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.79% per annum.
  • MAT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 26, 2021
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 3.1180

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0897

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0897) – 1
= 43.17%

February 26, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y209)
= Exp(a + b × X209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + -0.0001 × 303 + 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(3.2609)
= $26.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y209)
= Exp(a + b × X209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + -0.0001 × 303 – 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(2.9021)
= $18.21

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(3.0778)
= $21.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0897)
= Exp(2.7190)
= $15.16

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.30% per annum.
  • MAT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $15.72 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 11, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 13.6413

b = -0.0060

s = 0.0629

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0060) – 1
= -88.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.61%

February 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6413 + -0.0060 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.2810)
= $26.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6413 + -0.0060 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.0294)
= $20.69

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6413 + -0.0060 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.8253)
= $16.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6413 + -0.0060 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.5738)
= $13.12

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.79% per annum.
  • MAT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.