Stock Price Trends

Mattel Inc (MAT)

Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.08% per annum.
  • MAT price at the close of August 18, 2025 was $17.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.18% per annum.
  • MAT price at the close of August 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2021
End date: August 18, 2025

a = 3.1011

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0889

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0889) – 1
= 42.72%

March 10, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y139)
= Exp(a + b × X139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1011 + -0.0001 × 203 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(3.2557)
= $25.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y139)
= Exp(a + b × X139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1011 + -0.0001 × 203 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(2.9000)
= $18.17

August 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1011 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(3.0705)
= $21.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1011 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(2.7148)
= $15.10

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.08% per annum.
  • MAT price at the close of August 18, 2025 was $17.95 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: August 18, 2025

a = 2.9394

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0790

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0790) – 1
= 37.15%

October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y551)
= Exp(a + b × X551 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9394 + 0.0000 × 798 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(3.0934)
= $22.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y551)
= Exp(a + b × X551 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9394 + 0.0000 × 798 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(2.7776)
= $16.08

August 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9394 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(3.0885)
= $21.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9394 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(2.7726)
= $16.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.18% per annum.
  • MAT price at the close of August 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.