Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms under the Ruger name and trademark in the United States. The company is headquartered in Southport, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.84% per annum.
- RGR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $40.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.80 (4.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.21% per annum.
- RGR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 25, 2023
End date: February 19, 2025
a = 4.5978
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0459
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0459) – 1
= 20.14%
January 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5978 + -0.0006 × 1,001 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(4.1169)
= $61.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5978 + -0.0006 × 1,001 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.9334)
= $51.08
February 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5978 + -0.0006 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.6845)
= $39.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5978 + -0.0006 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.5010)
= $33.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.84% per annum.
- RGR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $40.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.80 (4.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 1.3483
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0315
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.41%
December 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3483 + 0.0013 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(3.5985)
= $36.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3483 + 0.0013 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(3.4727)
= $32.22
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3483 + 0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(3.7677)
= $43.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3483 + 0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(3.6418)
= $38.16
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.21% per annum.
- RGR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.