Stock Price Trends

Polaris Industries Inc (PII)

Polaris Industries Inc. is a leading manufacturer of off-road vehicles and powersports equipment, renowned for its innovative design and engineering expertise. Headquartered in Medina, Minnesota, Polaris operates globally, offering a diverse range of products including all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), snowmobiles, and motorcycles. The company is committed to enhancing the riding experience through advanced technology and sustainable practices, positioning itself as a key player in the growing outdoor recreation market. With a strong distribution network and a focus on customer satisfaction, Polaris is well-equipped to capitalize on industry trends and drive long-term growth.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 296.30% per annum.
  • PII price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $69.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.24 (23.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 62.16% per annum.
  • PII price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PII price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: November 3, 2025

a = -2.2720

b = 0.0038

s = 0.0496

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 296.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0496) – 1
= 21.96%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,514 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2720 + 0.0038 × 1,514 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.5389)
= $34.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,514 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2720 + 0.0038 × 1,514 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.3404)
= $28.23

November 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2720 + 0.0038 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.3463)
= $77.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2720 + 0.0038 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.1478)
= $63.29

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 296.30% per annum.
  • PII price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $69.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.24 (23.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 12, 2025
End date: February 6, 2026

a = 1.8530

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0466

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 62.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0466) – 1
= 20.51%

August 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8530 + 0.0013 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(4.1249)
= $61.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8530 + 0.0013 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(3.9384)
= $51.33

February 6, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8530 + 0.0013 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(4.3607)
= $78.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8530 + 0.0013 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(4.1741)
= $64.98

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 62.16% per annum.
  • PII price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.