Polaris Industries Inc (PII)
Polaris Industries Inc. is a leading manufacturer of off-road vehicles and powersports equipment, renowned for its innovative design and engineering expertise. Headquartered in Medina, Minnesota, Polaris operates globally, offering a diverse range of products including all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), snowmobiles, and motorcycles. The company is committed to enhancing the riding experience through advanced technology and sustainable practices, positioning itself as a key player in the growing outdoor recreation market. With a strong distribution network and a focus on customer satisfaction, Polaris is well-equipped to capitalize on industry trends and drive long-term growth.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 296.30% per annum.
- PII price at the close of February 20, 2026 was $66.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $29.16 (30.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.00% per annum.
- PII price at the close of February 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PII price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: November 3, 2025
a = -2.2192
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0496
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 296.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0496) – 1
= 21.96%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,500 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2192 + 0.0038 × 1,500 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.5389)
= $34.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,500 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2192 + 0.0038 × 1,500 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(3.3404)
= $28.23
November 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2192 + 0.0038 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.3463)
= $77.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2192 + 0.0038 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0496)
= Exp(4.1478)
= $63.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 296.30% per annum.
- PII price at the close of February 20, 2026 was $66.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $29.16 (30.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 12, 2025
End date: February 20, 2026
a = 2.1411
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0488
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0488) – 1
= 21.55%
August 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1411 + 0.0012 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.1389)
= $62.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1411 + 0.0012 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(3.9438)
= $51.61
February 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1411 + 0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.3626)
= $78.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1411 + 0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(4.1675)
= $64.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.00% per annum.
- PII price at the close of February 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.