Stock Price Trends

Polaris Industries Inc (PII)

Polaris Industries Inc. is a leading manufacturer of off-road vehicles and powersports equipment, renowned for its innovative design and engineering expertise. Headquartered in Medina, Minnesota, Polaris operates globally, offering a diverse range of products including all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), snowmobiles, and motorcycles. The company is committed to enhancing the riding experience through advanced technology and sustainable practices, positioning itself as a key player in the growing outdoor recreation market. With a strong distribution network and a focus on customer satisfaction, Polaris is well-equipped to capitalize on industry trends and drive long-term growth.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 305.11% per annum.
  • PII price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $66.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 188.51% per annum.
  • PII price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PII price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 7, 2025
End date: October 31, 2025

a = -2.7400

b = 0.0038

s = 0.0477

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 305.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0477) – 1
= 21.04%

April 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7400 + 0.0038 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(3.5532)
= $34.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,111)
= Exp(a + b × X1,111 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7400 + 0.0038 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(3.3622)
= $28.85

October 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7400 + 0.0038 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.3466)
= $77.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7400 + 0.0038 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(4.1556)
= $63.79

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 305.11% per annum.
  • PII price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $66.10 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 22, 2025
End date: October 31, 2025

a = -1.0829

b = 0.0029

s = 0.0420

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 188.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.28%

July 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0829 + 0.0029 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.0028)
= $54.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0829 + 0.0029 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.8349)
= $46.29

October 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0829 + 0.0029 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.2960)
= $73.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0829 + 0.0029 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.1281)
= $62.06

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 188.51% per annum.
  • PII price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.