CVR Energy Inc (CVI)
CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) is a diversified energy company based in Sugar Land, Texas, specializing in petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing. With a robust refining capacity, CVR operates strategically located facilities that enhance its competitive position in the energy sector. The company's nitrogen fertilizer segment is critical for supporting agricultural productivity across the U.S., making it a key player in the agricultural supply chain. Committed to operational excellence and sustainability, CVR Energy continues to leverage its integrated business model to capitalize on market opportunities and drive shareholder value.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.96% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $24.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.25% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of February 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.42 (6.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2022
End date: June 10, 2025
a = 3.3368
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1674
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1674) – 1
= 95.34%
May 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3368 + -0.0002 × 449 + 2 × 0.1674)
= Exp(3.5828)
= $35.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3368 + -0.0002 × 449 – 2 × 0.1674)
= Exp(2.9132)
= $18.42
June 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3368 + -0.0002 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.1674)
= Exp(3.3586)
= $28.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,089)
= Exp(a + b × X1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3368 + -0.0002 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.1674)
= Exp(2.6890)
= $14.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.96% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $24.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 23, 2025
End date: February 2, 2026
a = 14.6731
b = -0.0064
s = 0.0498
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0064) – 1
= -90.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0498) – 1
= 22.03%
October 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.6731 + -0.0064 × 1,718 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(3.8165)
= $45.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.6731 + -0.0064 × 1,718 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(3.6174)
= $37.24
February 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.6731 + -0.0064 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(3.1660)
= $23.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.6731 + -0.0064 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(2.9669)
= $19.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.25% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of February 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.42 (6.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.