CVR Energy Inc (CVI)
CVR Energy, Inc., is engaged in petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing activities in the United States. The company is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.98% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $29.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.30% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2020
End date: April 17, 2024
a = 1.3101
b = 0.0014
s = 0.2358
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 63.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2358) – 1
= 156.82%
August 20, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3101 + 0.0014 × 469 + 2 × 0.2358)
= Exp(2.4172)
= $11.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3101 + 0.0014 × 469 – 2 × 0.2358)
= Exp(1.4740)
= $4.37
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3101 + 0.0014 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.2358)
= Exp(4.2274)
= $68.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3101 + 0.0014 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.2358)
= Exp(3.2842)
= $26.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.98% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $29.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.8130
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1121
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1121) – 1
= 56.56%
May 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y752)
= Exp(a + b × X752 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8130 + 0.0004 × 1,090 + 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(3.4363)
= $31.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y752)
= Exp(a + b × X752 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8130 + 0.0004 × 1,090 – 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(2.9880)
= $19.85
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8130 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(3.7058)
= $40.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8130 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1121)
= Exp(3.2575)
= $25.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.30% per annum.
- CVI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.