Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)
Valero Energy Corporation is a Fortune 500 international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels, other petrochemical products, and power. It is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.42% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $165.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.85% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.25 (2.00%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VLO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2020
End date: April 19, 2023
a = 3.2802
b = 0.0011
s = 0.1416
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1416) – 1
= 76.16%
March 11, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2802 + 0.0011 × 317 + 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(3.9237)
= $50.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y219)
= Exp(a + b × X219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2802 + 0.0011 × 317 – 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(3.3574)
= $28.72
April 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2802 + 0.0011 × 1,451 + 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(5.2126)
= $183.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2802 + 0.0011 × 1,451 – 2 × 0.1416)
= Exp(4.6464)
= $104.21
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.42% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $165.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 30, 2022
End date: March 12, 2024
a = 4.3163
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0852
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0852) – 1
= 40.62%
March 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y737)
= Exp(a + b × X737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3163 + 0.0003 × 1,066 + 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(4.8399)
= $126.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y737)
= Exp(a + b × X737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3163 + 0.0003 × 1,066 – 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(4.4990)
= $89.93
March 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3163 + 0.0003 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(5.0761)
= $160.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3163 + 0.0003 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0852)
= Exp(4.7352)
= $113.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.85% per annum.
- VLO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.25 (2.00%).