Stock Price Trends

REX American Resources Corporation (REX)

REX American Resources Corporation, produces and sells ethanol in the United States. The company is headquartered in Dayton, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.86% per annum.
  • REX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $57.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 322.38% per annum.
  • REX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of REX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024

a = 1.3143

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0742

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 69.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0742) – 1
= 34.56%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3143 + 0.0015 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.4962)
= $32.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3143 + 0.0015 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.1994)
= $24.52

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3143 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(4.1131)
= $61.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3143 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.8163)
= $45.44

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.86% per annum.
  • REX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $57.82 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 25, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024

a = -3.1262

b = 0.0039

s = 0.0675

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 322.38%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0675) – 1
= 30.98%

January 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.1262 + 0.0039 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.8059)
= $44.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.1262 + 0.0039 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.5360)
= $34.33

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.1262 + 0.0039 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.2164)
= $67.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.1262 + 0.0039 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(3.9465)
= $51.75

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 322.38% per annum.
  • REX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.