Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading American integrated downstream energy company, specializing in petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation. Headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, MPC operates one of the largest refining systems in the United States, with a strong emphasis on operational efficiency and strategic logistics. The company's diverse portfolio includes a vast network of retail outlets and distribution channels, enabling it to serve both commercial and consumer markets effectively. MPC's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it as a forward-thinking player in the energy sector, adept at navigating the evolving landscape of global energy demands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.59% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 28, 2025 was $193.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 75.38% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2023
End date: September 4, 2025
a = 4.9863
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1042
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1042) – 1
= 51.74%
August 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y673)
= Exp(a + b × X673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 977 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9863 + 0.0000 × 977 + 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(5.2369)
= $188.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y673)
= Exp(a + b × X673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 977 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9863 + 0.0000 × 977 – 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(4.8200)
= $123.96
September 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9863 + 0.0000 × 1,739 + 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(5.2698)
= $194.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9863 + 0.0000 × 1,739 – 2 × 0.1042)
= Exp(4.8528)
= $128.10
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.59% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 28, 2025 was $193.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2025
End date: November 28, 2025
a = 2.5012
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0591
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 75.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0591) – 1
= 26.65%
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5012 + 0.0015 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(5.0111)
= $150.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5012 + 0.0015 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(4.7749)
= $118.49
November 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5012 + 0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(5.4267)
= $227.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5012 + 0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0591)
= Exp(5.1904)
= $179.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 75.38% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of November 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.