Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading American integrated downstream energy company, specializing in petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation. Headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, MPC operates one of the largest refining systems in the United States, with a strong emphasis on operational efficiency and strategic logistics. The company's diverse portfolio includes a vast network of retail outlets and distribution channels, enabling it to serve both commercial and consumer markets effectively. MPC's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it as a forward-thinking player in the energy sector, adept at navigating the evolving landscape of global energy demands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.60% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $198.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.35% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of February 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2023
End date: February 3, 2026
a = 4.8329
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1068
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1068) – 1
= 53.27%
August 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8329 + 0.0002 × 886 + 2 × 0.1068)
= Exp(5.2015)
= $181.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8329 + 0.0002 × 886 – 2 × 0.1068)
= Exp(4.7745)
= $118.45
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8329 + 0.0002 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.1068)
= Exp(5.3614)
= $213.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8329 + 0.0002 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.1068)
= Exp(4.9344)
= $138.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.60% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $198.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 12, 2024
End date: February 27, 2026
a = 3.6680
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0745
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0745) – 1
= 34.71%
December 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6680 + 0.0009 × 1,382 + 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(5.0460)
= $155.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6680 + 0.0009 × 1,382 – 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(4.7480)
= $115.35
February 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6680 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(5.4390)
= $230.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6680 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0745)
= Exp(5.1411)
= $170.90
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.35% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of February 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.