Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.29% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $198.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.30% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2020
End date: April 24, 2023
a = 2.7372
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1084
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1084) – 1
= 54.29%
March 25, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7372 + 0.0015 × 331 + 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(3.4526)
= $31.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7372 + 0.0015 × 331 – 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(3.0189)
= $20.47
April 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7372 + 0.0015 × 1,456 + 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(5.1471)
= $171.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7372 + 0.0015 × 1,456 – 2 × 0.1084)
= Exp(4.7135)
= $111.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.29% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $198.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2021
End date: March 18, 2024
a = 3.0882
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0842
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0842) – 1
= 40.05%
February 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y446)
= Exp(a + b × X446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0882 + 0.0012 × 646 + 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(4.0128)
= $55.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y446)
= Exp(a + b × X446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0882 + 0.0012 × 646 – 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(3.6760)
= $39.49
March 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0882 + 0.0012 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(5.3461)
= $209.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0882 + 0.0012 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(5.0092)
= $149.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.30% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.