PBF Energy Inc (PBF)
PBF Energy Inc., is dedicated to refining and supplying petroleum products. The company is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.72% per annum.
- PBF price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $50.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.85 (3.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.71% per annum.
- PBF price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PBF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 2, 2020
End date: November 3, 2023
a = 1.1038
b = 0.0018
s = 0.2422
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 94.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2422) – 1
= 163.44%
July 2, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1038 + 0.0018 × 420 + 2 × 0.2422)
= Exp(2.3550)
= $10.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1038 + 0.0018 × 420 – 2 × 0.2422)
= Exp(1.3863)
= $4.00
November 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1038 + 0.0018 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.2422)
= Exp(4.5806)
= $97.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1038 + 0.0018 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.2422)
= Exp(3.6119)
= $37.04
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.72% per annum.
- PBF price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $50.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.85 (3.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 14, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.6064
b = 0.0008
s = 0.1137
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1137) – 1
= 57.60%
April 14, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6064 + 0.0008 × 1,071 + 2 × 0.1137)
= Exp(3.6421)
= $38.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6064 + 0.0008 × 1,071 – 2 × 0.1137)
= Exp(3.1873)
= $24.22
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6064 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1137)
= Exp(4.2119)
= $67.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6064 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1137)
= Exp(3.7571)
= $42.82
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.71% per annum.
- PBF price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.