Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 73.94% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $25.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.50 (2.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.87% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (0.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PARR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 9.8299
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0517
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -73.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0517) – 1
= 22.98%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8299 + -0.0037 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.8364)
= $46.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8299 + -0.0037 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.6296)
= $37.70
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8299 + -0.0037 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.2212)
= $25.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8299 + -0.0037 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0517)
= Exp(3.0143)
= $20.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 73.94% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $25.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.50 (2.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.8808
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0244
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0244) – 1
= 10.27%
June 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8808 + -0.0009 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(3.2766)
= $26.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8808 + -0.0009 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(3.1789)
= $24.02
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8808 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(3.2272)
= $25.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8808 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(3.1294)
= $22.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.87% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.16 (0.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.