Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR)
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. owns and operates energy and infrastructure businesses. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.22% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $29.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.31% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PARR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 16, 2020
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 1.7764
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1696
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1696) – 1
= 97.07%
March 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y214)
= Exp(a + b × X214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7764 + 0.0010 × 312 + 2 × 0.1696)
= Exp(2.4345)
= $11.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y214)
= Exp(a + b × X214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7764 + 0.0010 × 312 – 2 × 0.1696)
= Exp(1.7561)
= $5.79
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7764 + 0.0010 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.1696)
= Exp(3.9728)
= $53.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7764 + 0.0010 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.1696)
= Exp(3.2944)
= $26.96
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.22% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $29.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 14.1285
b = -0.0059
s = 0.0366
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0059) – 1
= -88.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0366) – 1
= 15.75%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1285 + -0.0059 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.7589)
= $42.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1285 + -0.0059 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.6126)
= $37.06
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1285 + -0.0059 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.4649)
= $31.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1285 + -0.0059 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.3186)
= $27.62
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.31% per annum.
- PARR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.