Phillips 66 (PSX)
The Phillips 66 Company is an American multinational energy company headquartered in Westchase, Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.01% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $142.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.36% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.5678
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0845
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0845) – 1
= 40.23%
July 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y497)
= Exp(a + b × X497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5678 + 0.0008 × 721 + 2 × 0.0845)
= Exp(4.3003)
= $73.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y497)
= Exp(a + b × X497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5678 + 0.0008 × 721 – 2 × 0.0845)
= Exp(3.9621)
= $52.57
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5678 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0845)
= Exp(5.1638)
= $174.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5678 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0845)
= Exp(4.8257)
= $124.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.01% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $142.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.5607
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0354
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0354) – 1
= 15.20%
March 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5607 + -0.0015 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(5.1539)
= $173.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5607 + -0.0015 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(5.0124)
= $150.27
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5607 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(4.9609)
= $142.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5607 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(4.8194)
= $123.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.36% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.