Phillips 66 (PSX)
The Phillips 66 Company is an American multinational energy company headquartered in Westchase, Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.83% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $145.21 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.87 (2.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.39% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 27, 2023
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 2.0803
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0472
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 82.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0472) – 1
= 20.79%
April 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,000)
= Exp(a + b × X1,000 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0803 + 0.0017 × 1,450 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(4.5718)
= $96.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,000)
= Exp(a + b × X1,000 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0803 + 0.0017 × 1,450 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(4.3829)
= $80.07
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0803 + 0.0017 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(5.1802)
= $177.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0803 + 0.0017 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(4.9913)
= $147.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 82.83% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $145.21 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.87 (2.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 14.9371
b = -0.0055
s = 0.0206
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0055) – 1
= -86.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0206) – 1
= 8.59%
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9371 + -0.0055 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.1910)
= $179.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9371 + -0.0055 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(5.1086)
= $165.44
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9371 + -0.0055 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(4.9997)
= $148.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9371 + -0.0055 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0206)
= Exp(4.9174)
= $136.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.39% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.