Phillips 66 (PSX)
Phillips 66 (PSX) is a leading American multinational energy company headquartered in Houston, Texas, specializing in the refining, transportation, and marketing of petroleum products. With a diverse portfolio that includes midstream logistics and chemicals, Phillips 66 is positioned to capitalize on global energy demand while emphasizing sustainability and innovation in its operations. The company's extensive infrastructure and strategic partnerships enable it to efficiently deliver energy solutions, making it a key player in the energy sector. As a result, Phillips 66 remains well-equipped to navigate the evolving energy landscape and deliver long-term value to shareholders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.69% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $157.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.42 (25.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.30% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 30, 2023
End date: August 21, 2025
a = 5.2402
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0781
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0781) – 1
= 36.68%
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2402 + -0.0003 × 1,025 + 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(5.0789)
= $160.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2402 + -0.0003 × 1,025 – 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(4.7665)
= $117.50
August 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2402 + -0.0003 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(4.8837)
= $132.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2402 + -0.0003 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.0781)
= Exp(4.5713)
= $96.67
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.69% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $157.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.42 (25.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: February 6, 2026
a = 2.9942
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0523
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0523) – 1
= 23.26%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,515 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9942 + 0.0011 × 1,515 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.7622)
= $117.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,515 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9942 + 0.0011 × 1,515 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.5530)
= $94.92
February 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9942 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(5.1014)
= $164.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9942 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(4.8923)
= $133.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.30% per annum.
- PSX price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.