Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)
Pinnacle West Capital is a utility holding company that owns Arizona Public Service and Bright Canyon Energy.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.67% per annum.
- PNW price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $91.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.07% per annum.
- PNW price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PNW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 28, 2023
End date: June 3, 2025
a = 3.4042
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0473
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0473) – 1
= 20.81%
September 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4042 + 0.0006 × 1,171 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.2572)
= $70.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y808)
= Exp(a + b × X808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4042 + 0.0006 × 1,171 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.0681)
= $58.45
June 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4042 + 0.0006 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.6549)
= $105.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4042 + 0.0006 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(4.4659)
= $87.00
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.67% per annum.
- PNW price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $91.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 26, 2024
End date: July 11, 2025
a = 4.0437
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0306
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0306) – 1
= 13.00%
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0437 + 0.0003 × 1,473 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.4919)
= $89.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,015)
= Exp(a + b × X1,015 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0437 + 0.0003 × 1,473 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.3696)
= $79.01
July 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0437 + 0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.5838)
= $97.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0437 + 0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.4616)
= $86.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.07% per annum.
- PNW price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.