Stock Price Trends

Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)

Pinnacle West Capital is a utility holding company that owns Arizona Public Service and Bright Canyon Energy.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.72% per annum.
  • PNW price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $84.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.10 (0.12%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 439.65% per annum.
  • PNW price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PNW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 2.5447

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0230

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0230) – 1
= 9.66%

January 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5447 + 0.0010 × 1,632 + 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(4.2436)
= $69.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5447 + 0.0010 × 1,632 – 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(4.1514)
= $63.52

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5447 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(4.4380)
= $84.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5447 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(4.3459)
= $77.16

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.72% per annum.
  • PNW price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $84.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.10 (0.12%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 1, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = -3.9878

b = 0.0046

s = 0.0096

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0046) – 1
= 439.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0096) – 1
= 3.93%

July 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9878 + 0.0046 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(4.3401)
= $76.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9878 + 0.0046 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(4.3016)
= $73.82

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9878 + 0.0046 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(4.4556)
= $86.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9878 + 0.0046 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(4.4170)
= $82.85

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 439.65% per annum.
  • PNW price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.