CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)
CMS Energy (NYSE: CMS), based in Jackson, Michigan, is an energy company that is focused principally on utility operations in Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.37% per annum.
- CMS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $62.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.96% per annum.
- CMS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 25, 2023
End date: June 11, 2024
a = 3.0232
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0249
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0249) – 1
= 10.49%
September 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0232 + 0.0006 × 1,519 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(4.0139)
= $55.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0232 + 0.0006 × 1,519 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(3.9141)
= $50.10
June 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0232 + 0.0006 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(4.1749)
= $65.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0232 + 0.0006 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(4.0751)
= $58.86
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.37% per annum.
- CMS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $62.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 14, 2023
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 3.4215
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0235
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0235) – 1
= 9.86%
November 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4215 + 0.0004 × 1,569 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.0679)
= $58.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4215 + 0.0004 × 1,569 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(3.9738)
= $53.19
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4215 + 0.0004 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.1645)
= $64.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4215 + 0.0004 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.0705)
= $58.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.96% per annum.
- CMS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.