Stock Price Trends

Consolidated Edison Inc (ED)

Consolidated Edison, Inc., commonly known as Con Edison (stylized as conEdison) or ConEd, is one of the largest investor-owned energy companies in the United States, with approximately $12 billion in annual revenues as of 2017, and over $48 billion in assets. The company provides a wide range of energy-related products and services to its customers through its subsidiaries.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.33% per annum.
  • ED price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $97.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.20% per annum.
  • ED price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.73 (0.76%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ED price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2020
End date: June 9, 2023

a = 3.9436

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0626

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0626) – 1
= 28.46%

May 6, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9436 + 0.0004 × 352 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.2146)
= $67.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9436 + 0.0004 × 352 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(3.9642)
= $52.68

June 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9436 + 0.0004 × 1,481 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.6825)
= $108.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9436 + 0.0004 × 1,481 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.4321)
= $84.11

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.33% per annum.
  • ED price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $97.10 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 24, 2022
End date: April 30, 2024

a = 4.4775

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0405

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0405) – 1
= 17.57%

March 24, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,039 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4775 + 0.0000 × 1,039 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(4.5640)
= $95.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,039 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4775 + 0.0000 × 1,039 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(4.4021)
= $81.62

April 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4775 + 0.0000 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(4.5681)
= $96.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4775 + 0.0000 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(4.4062)
= $81.96

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.20% per annum.
  • ED price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.73 (0.76%).