Ameren Corp (AEE)
Ameren Corporation is an American power company created December 31, 1997, by the merger of St. Louis, Missouri's Union Electric Company (formerly NYSE: UEP) and the neighboring Central Illinois Public Service Company (CIPSCO Inc. holding, formerly NYSE: CIP) of Springfield, Illinois. It is now a holding company for several power companies and energy companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.30% per annum.
- AEE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $78.04 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.27 (1.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.32% per annum.
- AEE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.39 (0.50%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AEE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2022
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 4.7374
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0457
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.05%
March 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y667)
= Exp(a + b × X667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7374 + -0.0003 × 966 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.5703)
= $96.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y667)
= Exp(a + b × X667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7374 + -0.0003 × 966 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.3876)
= $80.44
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7374 + -0.0003 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.3435)
= $76.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7374 + -0.0003 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.1607)
= $64.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.30% per annum.
- AEE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $78.04 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.27 (1.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 12, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.6339
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.40%
January 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6339 + 0.0004 × 1,628 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.2804)
= $72.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6339 + 0.0004 × 1,628 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.1815)
= $65.46
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6339 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.3523)
= $77.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6339 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.2533)
= $70.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.32% per annum.
- AEE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.39 (0.50%).