Avista Corporation (AVA)
Avista Corporation is a natural gas and electric utility company. The company is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.40% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $41.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.32% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 2.8821
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0402
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0402) – 1
= 17.44%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8821 + 0.0004 × 1,203 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.4911)
= $32.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8821 + 0.0004 × 1,203 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.3303)
= $27.95
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8821 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.7644)
= $43.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8821 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0402)
= Exp(3.6036)
= $36.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.40% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $41.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 0.6612
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0215
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 8.97%
January 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6612 + 0.0017 × 1,713 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.5994)
= $36.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6612 + 0.0017 × 1,713 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.5135)
= $33.57
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6612 + 0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.7887)
= $44.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6612 + 0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(3.7028)
= $40.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.32% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.