Avista Corporation (AVA)
Avista Corporation is a natural gas and electric utility company. The company is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.31% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.57 (6.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.58% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.23 (0.59%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 7, 2022
End date: April 22, 2024
a = 3.9142
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0619
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0619) – 1
= 28.09%
January 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9142 + -0.0002 × 896 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(3.8251)
= $45.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9142 + -0.0002 × 896 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(3.5775)
= $35.79
April 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9142 + -0.0002 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(3.6265)
= $37.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9142 + -0.0002 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(3.3790)
= $29.34
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.31% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.57 (6.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.8633
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0391
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0391) – 1
= 16.94%
August 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8633 + 0.0004 × 1,481 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.5290)
= $34.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8633 + 0.0004 × 1,481 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.3725)
= $29.15
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8633 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.6659)
= $39.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8633 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.5094)
= $33.43
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.58% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.23 (0.59%).