Avista Corporation (AVA)
Avista Corporation (AVA) is a diversified utility company based in Spokane, Washington, primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas. Serving approximately 400,000 customers across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, Avista is committed to delivering reliable energy solutions while prioritizing sustainability and renewable energy sources. With a robust infrastructure and a strategic focus on long-term resource planning, the company is well-positioned to navigate the evolving landscape of the energy sector. Avista's emphasis on customer service and community engagement further underscores its role as a key player in the regions it serves.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.14% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $38.39 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.09 (0.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.13% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of October 16, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.44 (1.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 14, 2023
End date: June 3, 2025
a = 2.9399
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0400
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0400) – 1
= 17.35%
August 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9399 + 0.0004 × 1,029 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.4659)
= $32.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y708)
= Exp(a + b × X708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9399 + 0.0004 × 1,029 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.3059)
= $27.27
June 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9399 + 0.0004 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.7515)
= $42.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9399 + 0.0004 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.5916)
= $36.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.14% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $38.39 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.09 (0.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2025
End date: October 14, 2025
a = 4.2920
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0235
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0235) – 1
= 9.88%
February 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2920 + -0.0004 × 1,591 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(3.7256)
= $41.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2920 + -0.0004 × 1,591 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(3.6314)
= $37.77
October 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2920 + -0.0004 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(3.6369)
= $37.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2920 + -0.0004 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(3.5428)
= $34.56
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.13% per annum.
- AVA price at the close of October 16, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.44 (1.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.