NorthWestern Corporation (NWE)
NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers. The company is headquartered in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.00% per annum.
- NWE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $53.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.54% per annum.
- NWE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (0.81%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NWE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: June 6, 2024
a = 2.5509
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0164
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0164) – 1
= 6.79%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5509 + 0.0008 × 1,635 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(3.8611)
= $47.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5509 + 0.0008 × 1,635 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(3.7954)
= $44.50
June 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5509 + 0.0008 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(3.9720)
= $53.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5509 + 0.0008 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(3.9064)
= $49.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.00% per annum.
- NWE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $53.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 3.4681
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0204
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0204) – 1
= 8.51%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4681 + 0.0002 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(3.9297)
= $50.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4681 + 0.0002 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(3.8481)
= $46.90
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4681 + 0.0002 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(3.9612)
= $52.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4681 + 0.0002 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0204)
= Exp(3.8795)
= $48.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.54% per annum.
- NWE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (0.81%).