W P Carey Inc (WPC)
WP Carey is among the largest net-lease REITs with an enterprise value of approximately $ 18 billion and a diversified portfolio of operationally critical commercial real estate that includes 1,215 net-lease properties covering approximately 142 million square feet as of March 30. September 2020.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.39% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $60.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.71 (1.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.97% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2021
End date: February 11, 2025
a = 4.3291
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0750
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0750) – 1
= 34.99%
December 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y405)
= Exp(a + b × X405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3291 + -0.0002 × 586 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(4.3558)
= $77.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y405)
= Exp(a + b × X405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3291 + -0.0002 × 586 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(4.0558)
= $57.73
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3291 + -0.0002 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(4.1112)
= $61.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3291 + -0.0002 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0750)
= Exp(3.8112)
= $45.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.39% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $60.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.71 (1.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.5224
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0439
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0439) – 1
= 19.21%
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5224 + 0.0003 × 1,381 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.0381)
= $56.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5224 + 0.0003 × 1,381 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(3.8624)
= $47.58
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5224 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.1757)
= $65.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5224 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0439)
= Exp(4.0000)
= $54.60
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.97% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.