W P Carey Inc (WPC)
WP Carey is among the largest net-lease REITs with an enterprise value of approximately $ 18 billion and a diversified portfolio of operationally critical commercial real estate that includes 1,215 net-lease properties covering approximately 142 million square feet as of March 30. September 2020.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.57% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $59.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.04% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2022
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 4.6497
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0707
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0707) – 1
= 32.70%
March 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6497 + -0.0004 × 973 + 2 × 0.0707)
= Exp(4.4331)
= $84.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6497 + -0.0004 × 973 – 2 × 0.0707)
= Exp(4.1501)
= $63.44
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6497 + -0.0004 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0707)
= Exp(4.1243)
= $61.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6497 + -0.0004 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0707)
= Exp(3.8414)
= $46.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.57% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $59.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.5169
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0261
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0261) – 1
= 11.02%
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5169 + 0.0003 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.0452)
= $57.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5169 + 0.0003 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(3.9407)
= $51.45
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5169 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(4.0931)
= $59.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5169 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(3.9886)
= $53.98
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.04% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.