W P Carey Inc (WPC)
WP Carey is among the largest net-lease REITs with an enterprise value of approximately $ 18 billion and a diversified portfolio of operationally critical commercial real estate that includes 1,215 net-lease properties covering approximately 142 million square feet as of March 30. September 2020.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.05% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $60.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 431.58% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2022
End date: May 16, 2024
a = 4.7099
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0725
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0725) – 1
= 33.65%
March 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7099 + -0.0004 × 1,043 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.4555)
= $86.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7099 + -0.0004 × 1,043 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.1654)
= $64.42
May 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7099 + -0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.1568)
= $63.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7099 + -0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(3.8667)
= $47.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.05% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $60.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = -4.2547
b = 0.0046
s = 0.0092
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0046) – 1
= 431.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0092) – 1
= 3.76%
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2547 + 0.0046 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0092)
= Exp(4.0165)
= $55.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2547 + 0.0046 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0092)
= Exp(3.9796)
= $53.50
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2547 + 0.0046 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0092)
= Exp(4.1127)
= $61.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2547 + 0.0046 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0092)
= Exp(4.0757)
= $58.89
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 431.58% per annum.
- WPC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.