Stock Price Trends

Elme Communities (ELME)

Elme Communities is a strategic real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on the ownership and operation of multifamily properties primarily located in the high-demand Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. The company targets well-positioned assets with strong fundamentals and a growth-oriented approach, aiming to capitalize on the region's robust job market and demographic trends. With a commitment to creating vibrant communities and delivering long-term value, Elme Communities is poised to benefit from favorable market dynamics while maintaining a focus on sustainability and tenant satisfaction.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.19% per annum.
  • ELME price at the close of January 9, 2026 was $2.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.81% per annum.
  • ELME price at the close of January 9, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.89%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELME price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 14, 2023
End date: January 9, 2026

a = 0.3639

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0627

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0627) – 1
= 28.49%

August 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y650)
= Exp(a + b × X650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 944 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3639 + 0.0004 × 944 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(0.8325)
= $2.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y650)
= Exp(a + b × X650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 944 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3639 + 0.0004 × 944 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(0.5818)
= $1.79

January 9, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3639 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(1.1521)
= $3.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3639 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0627)
= Exp(0.9013)
= $2.46

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.19% per annum.
  • ELME price at the close of January 9, 2026 was $2.95 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: January 9, 2026

a = 0.7410

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0487

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.51%

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y878)
= Exp(a + b × X878 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7410 + 0.0001 × 1,276 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(1.0026)
= $2.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y878)
= Exp(a + b × X878 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7410 + 0.0001 × 1,276 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(0.8077)
= $2.24

January 9, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7410 + 0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(1.0729)
= $2.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7410 + 0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(0.8781)
= $2.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.81% per annum.
  • ELME price at the close of January 9, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.03 (0.89%).