American Assets Trust Inc (AAT)
American Assets Trust, Inc. is a self-managed, vertically integrated, full-service real estate investment trust, or REIT, based in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.52% per annum.
- AAT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $22.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.68% per annum.
- AAT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.46 (2.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.0132
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0661
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0661) – 1
= 30.28%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,390 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0132 + 0.0006 × 1,390 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(2.9806)
= $19.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,390 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0132 + 0.0006 × 1,390 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(2.7161)
= $15.12
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0132 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(3.2414)
= $25.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0132 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(2.9768)
= $19.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.52% per annum.
- AAT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $22.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.7292
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0307
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0307) – 1
= 13.05%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7292 + -0.0004 × 1,668 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(3.1709)
= $23.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7292 + -0.0004 × 1,668 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(3.0483)
= $21.08
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7292 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(3.1130)
= $22.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7292 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(2.9904)
= $19.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.68% per annum.
- AAT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.46 (2.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.