Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc (EPRT)
Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc., a real estate company, acquires, owns and manages single-tenant properties in the United States. The company is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.16% per annum.
- EPRT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $31.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.15 (9.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.78% per annum.
- EPRT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EPRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 14, 2023
End date: December 17, 2024
a = 1.7477
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0462
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0462) – 1
= 20.30%
August 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7477 + 0.0010 × 1,202 + 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(3.0899)
= $21.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y828)
= Exp(a + b × X828 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7477 + 0.0010 × 1,202 – 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(2.9051)
= $18.27
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7477 + 0.0010 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(3.6005)
= $36.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7477 + 0.0010 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0462)
= Exp(3.4157)
= $30.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.16% per annum.
- EPRT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $31.77 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.15 (9.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.7387
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0255
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0255) – 1
= 10.72%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7387 + -0.0002 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(3.5303)
= $34.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7387 + -0.0002 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(3.4284)
= $30.83
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7387 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(3.4917)
= $32.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7387 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0255)
= Exp(3.3899)
= $29.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.78% per annum.
- EPRT price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.