Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.76% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $7.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 557.85% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2021
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.8564
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0891
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0891) – 1
= 42.82%
February 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y437)
= Exp(a + b × X437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8564 + -0.0004 × 633 + 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(2.7578)
= $15.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y437)
= Exp(a + b × X437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8564 + -0.0004 × 633 – 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(2.4014)
= $11.04
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8564 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(2.2369)
= $9.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8564 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0891)
= Exp(1.8804)
= $6.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.76% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $7.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = -7.3718
b = 0.0052
s = 0.0106
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0052) – 1
= 557.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0106) – 1
= 4.35%
April 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3718 + 0.0052 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0106)
= Exp(1.9034)
= $6.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3718 + 0.0052 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0106)
= Exp(1.8608)
= $6.43
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3718 + 0.0052 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0106)
= Exp(2.0634)
= $7.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3718 + 0.0052 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0106)
= Exp(2.0208)
= $7.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 557.85% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.