Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.02% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $8.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.28 (3.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,813.91% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GNL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2021
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 2.7986
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0878
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -15.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0878) – 1
= 42.10%
February 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y389)
= Exp(a + b × X389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 563 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7986 + -0.0004 × 563 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(2.7233)
= $15.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y389)
= Exp(a + b × X389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 563 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7986 + -0.0004 × 563 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(2.3720)
= $10.72
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7986 + -0.0004 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(2.1674)
= $8.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7986 + -0.0004 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(1.8160)
= $6.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.02% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $8.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.28 (3.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -14.6625
b = 0.0092
s = 0.0249
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0092) – 1
= 2,813.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0249) – 1
= 10.47%
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.6625 + 0.0092 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(1.9520)
= $7.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.6625 + 0.0092 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(1.8525)
= $6.38
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.6625 + 0.0092 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(2.2384)
= $9.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-14.6625 + 0.0092 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(2.1389)
= $8.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,813.91% per annum.
- GNL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.