Alexander & Baldwin Holdings Inc (ALEX)
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (A&B) is Hawaii's leading commercial real estate company and the largest neighborhood grocery shopping center owner in the state.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.39% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.52 (2.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.79% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.1882
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0656
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0656) – 1
= 29.98%
September 3, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1882 + -0.0002 × 770 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(3.1345)
= $22.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1882 + -0.0002 × 770 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(2.8723)
= $17.68
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1882 + -0.0002 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(2.8846)
= $17.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1882 + -0.0002 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(2.6224)
= $13.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.39% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.52 (2.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.9016
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0520
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1
= 23.10%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y724)
= Exp(a + b × X724 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9016 + 0.0000 × 1,049 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(2.9537)
= $19.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y724)
= Exp(a + b × X724 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9016 + 0.0000 × 1,049 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(2.7458)
= $15.58
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9016 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(2.9153)
= $18.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9016 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(2.7075)
= $14.99
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.79% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.