Stock Price Trends

Alexander & Baldwin Holdings Inc (ALEX)

Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (A&B) is Hawaii's leading commercial real estate company and the largest neighborhood grocery shopping center owner in the state.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.78% per annum.
  • ALEX price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $15.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.40% per annum.
  • ALEX price at the close of November 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 27, 2025
End date: November 14, 2025

a = 7.6867

b = -0.0027

s = 0.0182

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0182) – 1
= 7.54%

August 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6867 + -0.0027 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(3.0008)
= $20.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6867 + -0.0027 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(2.9281)
= $18.69

November 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6867 + -0.0027 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(2.7869)
= $16.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6867 + -0.0027 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(2.7142)
= $15.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.78% per annum.
  • ALEX price at the close of November 14, 2025 was $15.91 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 31, 2025
End date: November 14, 2025

a = 1.4359

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0110

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0110) – 1
= 4.51%

October 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4359 + 0.0007 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0110)
= Exp(2.7736)
= $16.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4359 + 0.0007 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0110)
= Exp(2.7295)
= $15.33

November 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4359 + 0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0110)
= Exp(2.7838)
= $16.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4359 + 0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0110)
= Exp(2.7397)
= $15.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.40% per annum.
  • ALEX price at the close of November 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.