Alexander & Baldwin Holdings Inc (ALEX)
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. (A&B) is Hawaii's leading commercial real estate company and the largest neighborhood grocery shopping center owner in the state.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.74% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $17.04 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.70 (4.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.88% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.0616
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0676
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0676) – 1
= 31.07%
August 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0616 + -0.0002 × 462 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(3.0949)
= $22.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0616 + -0.0002 × 462 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(2.8243)
= $16.85
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0616 + -0.0002 × 1,532 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(2.8586)
= $17.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0616 + -0.0002 × 1,532 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(2.5880)
= $13.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.74% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $17.04 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.70 (4.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 2.7177
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0617
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0617) – 1
= 27.99%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7177 + 0.0001 × 770 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.9011)
= $18.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7177 + 0.0001 × 770 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.6543)
= $14.22
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7177 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.9833)
= $19.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7177 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(2.7365)
= $15.43
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.88% per annum.
- ALEX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.