JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS)
JBG SMITH is an S&P 400 company that owns, operates, invests, and develops a dynamic portfolio of high-growth mixed-use properties in and around Washington, DC.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.40% per annum.
- JBGS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $14.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.83% per annum.
- JBGS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JBGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2023
End date: April 16, 2025
a = 2.3099
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0752
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0752) – 1
= 35.10%
March 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,038 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3099 + 0.0003 × 1,038 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.7417)
= $15.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,038 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3099 + 0.0003 × 1,038 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.4408)
= $11.48
April 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3099 + 0.0003 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.9518)
= $19.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3099 + 0.0003 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.6509)
= $14.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.40% per annum.
- JBGS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $14.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.9769
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0399
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0399) – 1
= 17.29%
August 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9769 + -0.0007 × 1,573 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(2.9400)
= $18.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9769 + -0.0007 × 1,573 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(2.7805)
= $16.13
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9769 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(2.7611)
= $15.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9769 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(2.6016)
= $13.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.83% per annum.
- JBGS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.