Boston Properties Inc (BXP)
Boston Properties, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in office buildings in Boston, Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.63% per annum.
- BXP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $67.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.91% per annum.
- BXP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.66 (2.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BXP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1340
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0881
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0881) – 1
= 42.25%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1340 + 0.0006 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.0790)
= $59.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1340 + 0.0006 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(3.7265)
= $41.53
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1340 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.3712)
= $79.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1340 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(4.0188)
= $55.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.63% per annum.
- BXP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $67.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.8446
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0491
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0491) – 1
= 21.72%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8446 + -0.0004 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.2858)
= $72.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8446 + -0.0004 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.0893)
= $59.70
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8446 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(4.1935)
= $66.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8446 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.9970)
= $54.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.91% per annum.
- BXP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.66 (2.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.