Veris Residential Inc (VRE)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.34% per annum.
- VRE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $15.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.14 (24.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.47% per annum.
- VRE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 18, 2020
End date: April 25, 2022
a = 2.4750
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1008
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1008) – 1
= 49.66%
March 18, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y162)
= Exp(a + b × X162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4750 + 0.0004 × 236 + 2 × 0.1008)
= Exp(2.7745)
= $16.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y162)
= Exp(a + b × X162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4750 + 0.0004 × 236 – 2 × 0.1008)
= Exp(2.3713)
= $10.71
April 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4750 + 0.0004 × 1,004 + 2 × 0.1008)
= Exp(3.0930)
= $22.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4750 + 0.0004 × 1,004 – 2 × 0.1008)
= Exp(2.6898)
= $14.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 16.34% per annum.
- VRE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $15.57 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.14 (24.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.8714
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0964
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0964) – 1
= 47.05%
March 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 591 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8714 + -0.0001 × 591 + 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(3.0070)
= $20.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 591 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8714 + -0.0001 × 591 – 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(2.6214)
= $13.76
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8714 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(2.8876)
= $17.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8714 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(2.5020)
= $12.21
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.47% per annum.
- VRE price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.