COPT Defense Properties (CDP)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.64% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of August 18, 2025 was $27.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.08 (3.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.86% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of August 18, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.61 (6.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: February 11, 2025
a = 2.4728
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0686
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.57%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4728 + 0.0006 × 932 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.1310)
= $22.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4728 + 0.0006 × 932 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.8566)
= $17.40
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4728 + 0.0006 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.5251)
= $33.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4728 + 0.0006 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.2508)
= $25.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.64% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of August 18, 2025 was $27.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.08 (3.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: May 23, 2025
a = 4.6712
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0412
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0412) – 1
= 17.89%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,486 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6712 + -0.0008 × 1,486 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.5354)
= $34.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,486 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6712 + -0.0008 × 1,486 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.3707)
= $29.10
May 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6712 + -0.0008 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.3288)
= $27.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6712 + -0.0008 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(3.1642)
= $23.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.86% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of August 18, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.61 (6.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.