COPT Defense Properties (CDP)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.64% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $30.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.65% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of September 17, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.21 (4.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: February 11, 2025
a = 2.4896
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0686
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.57%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4896 + 0.0006 × 902 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.1310)
= $22.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4896 + 0.0006 × 902 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.8566)
= $17.40
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4896 + 0.0006 × 1,607 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.5251)
= $33.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4896 + 0.0006 × 1,607 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.2508)
= $25.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.64% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $30.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: August 20, 2025
a = 3.8920
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0514
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0514) – 1
= 22.84%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8920 + -0.0003 × 1,435 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(3.5079)
= $33.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8920 + -0.0003 × 1,435 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(3.3022)
= $27.17
August 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8920 + -0.0003 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(3.3851)
= $29.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8920 + -0.0003 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(3.1793)
= $24.03
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.65% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of September 17, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.21 (4.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.