Stock Price Trends

COPT Defense Properties (CDP)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.39% per annum.
  • CDP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $26.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 186.87% per annum.
  • CDP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 15, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 5.5049

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0296

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0296) – 1
= 12.56%

October 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5049 + -0.0012 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.5440)
= $34.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5049 + -0.0012 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.4256)
= $30.74

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5049 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.3023)
= $27.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5049 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.1839)
= $24.14

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.39% per annum.
  • CDP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $26.69 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 7, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = -1.9791

b = 0.0029

s = 0.0116

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 186.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0116) – 1
= 4.75%

April 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9791 + 0.0029 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(3.2527)
= $25.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9791 + 0.0029 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(3.2063)
= $24.69

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9791 + 0.0029 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(3.3133)
= $27.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.9791 + 0.0029 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(3.2670)
= $26.23

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 186.87% per annum.
  • CDP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.