COPT Defense Properties (CDP)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.47% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of November 5, 2025 was $28.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.79 (2.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.29% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of November 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: February 11, 2025
a = 2.5116
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0688
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0688) – 1
= 31.68%
March 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y584)
= Exp(a + b × X584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 851 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5116 + 0.0006 × 851 + 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(3.1217)
= $22.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y584)
= Exp(a + b × X584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 851 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5116 + 0.0006 × 851 – 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(2.8465)
= $17.23
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5116 + 0.0006 × 1,558 + 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(3.5142)
= $33.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5116 + 0.0006 × 1,558 – 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(3.2390)
= $25.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.47% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of November 5, 2025 was $28.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.79 (2.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: November 5, 2025
a = 3.4824
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0567
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0567) – 1
= 25.48%
July 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4824 + -0.0001 × 1,362 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.4712)
= $32.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4824 + -0.0001 × 1,362 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.2442)
= $25.64
November 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4824 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.4288)
= $30.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4824 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.2018)
= $24.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.29% per annum.
- CDP price at the close of November 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.