Stock Price Trends

Highwoods Properties Inc (HIW)

Highwoods Properties, Inc., based in Raleigh, is a publicly traded (NYSE: HIW) real estate investment trust (?

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 78.17% per annum.
  • HIW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $29.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.60% per annum.
  • HIW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HIW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 26, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 0.4668

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0555

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 78.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0555) – 1
= 24.85%

September 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4668 + 0.0016 × 1,523 + 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(2.9878)
= $19.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,049)
= Exp(a + b × X1,049 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,523 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4668 + 0.0016 × 1,523 – 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(2.7658)
= $15.89

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4668 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(3.4673)
= $32.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4668 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(3.2453)
= $25.67

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 78.17% per annum.
  • HIW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $29.14 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 1.2703

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0341

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.62%

December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2703 + 0.0011 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(3.1345)
= $22.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2703 + 0.0011 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(2.9981)
= $20.05

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2703 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(3.3869)
= $29.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2703 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(3.2505)
= $25.80

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.60% per annum.
  • HIW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.