Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC)
Kilroy Realty Corporation (NYSE: KRC, the?
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.90% per annum.
- KRC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $36.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.51% per annum.
- KRC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.15 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KRC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.6711
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0959
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0959) – 1
= 46.78%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6711 + 0.0005 × 1,320 + 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.5191)
= $33.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6711 + 0.0005 × 1,320 – 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.1354)
= $23.00
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6711 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.7697)
= $43.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6711 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.3859)
= $29.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.90% per annum.
- KRC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $36.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.8581
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0491
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0491) – 1
= 21.69%
December 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8581 + -0.0008 × 1,592 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.7299)
= $41.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8581 + -0.0008 × 1,592 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.5336)
= $34.25
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8581 + -0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.5511)
= $34.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8581 + -0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(3.3549)
= $28.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.51% per annum.
- KRC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.15 (3.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.