Stock Price Trends

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)

Vornado Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust formed in Maryland, with its primary office in New York City. The company invests in office buildings and street retail in Manhattan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.02% per annum.
  • VNO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $35.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.14 (5.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.31% per annum.
  • VNO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VNO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: March 26, 2025

a = 1.1295

b = 0.0015

s = 0.1262

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1262) – 1
= 65.65%

March 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y717)
= Exp(a + b × X717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,041 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1295 + 0.0015 × 1,041 + 2 × 0.1262)
= Exp(2.9455)
= $19.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y717)
= Exp(a + b × X717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,041 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1295 + 0.0015 × 1,041 – 2 × 0.1262)
= Exp(2.4409)
= $11.48

March 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1295 + 0.0015 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.1262)
= Exp(4.0721)
= $58.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1295 + 0.0015 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.1262)
= Exp(3.5674)
= $35.43

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.02% per annum.
  • VNO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $35.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.14 (5.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 17, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 5.5381

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0526

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0526) – 1
= 23.42%

October 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5381 + -0.0011 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(3.8995)
= $49.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5381 + -0.0011 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(3.6890)
= $40.01

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5381 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(3.6920)
= $40.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5381 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(3.4816)
= $32.51

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.31% per annum.
  • VNO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.