OraSure Technologies Inc (OSUR)
OraSure Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and sells oral fluid diagnostic products and sample collection devices in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.75% per annum.
- OSUR price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $4.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.32 (21.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.84% per annum.
- OSUR price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OSUR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2022
End date: March 20, 2024
a = -0.0790
b = 0.0012
s = 0.1523
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1523) – 1
= 83.92%
May 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0790 + 0.0012 × 1,100 + 2 × 0.1523)
= Exp(1.5609)
= $4.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0790 + 0.0012 × 1,100 – 2 × 0.1523)
= Exp(0.9516)
= $2.59
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0790 + 0.0012 × 1,766 + 2 × 0.1523)
= Exp(2.3694)
= $10.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0790 + 0.0012 × 1,766 – 2 × 0.1523)
= Exp(1.7600)
= $5.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.75% per annum.
- OSUR price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $4.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.32 (21.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 21, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 8.1488
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -72.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.23%
December 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1488 + -0.0036 × 1,676 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(2.2478)
= $9.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1488 + -0.0036 × 1,676 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(2.0803)
= $8.01
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1488 + -0.0036 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(1.7193)
= $5.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1488 + -0.0036 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(1.5518)
= $4.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.84% per annum.
- OSUR price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.