Quidel Corporation (QDEL)
Quidel Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets diagnostic testing solutions for infectious disease, cardiology, thyroid, general and women's health, eye health, gastrointestinal disease, and toxicology applications globally. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.41% per annum.
- QDEL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $42.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.41% per annum.
- QDEL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of QDEL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 15, 2020
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 5.7662
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1661
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1661) – 1
= 94.37%
June 15, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7662 + -0.0010 × 392 + 2 × 0.1661)
= Exp(5.7092)
= $301.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7662 + -0.0010 × 392 – 2 × 0.1661)
= Exp(5.0446)
= $155.18
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7662 + -0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1661)
= Exp(4.2871)
= $72.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7662 + -0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1661)
= Exp(3.6225)
= $37.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.41% per annum.
- QDEL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $42.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 7.4145
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1138
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1138) – 1
= 57.64%
April 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4145 + -0.0020 × 1,421 + 2 × 0.1138)
= Exp(4.8322)
= $125.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4145 + -0.0020 × 1,421 – 2 × 0.1138)
= Exp(4.3771)
= $79.61
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4145 + -0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1138)
= Exp(4.0353)
= $56.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4145 + -0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1138)
= Exp(3.5802)
= $35.88
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.41% per annum.
- QDEL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.