ICU Medical Inc (ICUI)
ICU Medical, Inc. develops, manufactures and sells medical devices used in infusion therapy and critical care applications worldwide. The company is headquartered in San Clemente, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.83% per annum.
- ICUI price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $103.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.23 (15.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.22% per annum.
- ICUI price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ICUI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 8, 2021
End date: December 28, 2022
a = 6.5758
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0691
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0691) – 1
= 31.86%
September 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y581)
= Exp(a + b × X581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5758 + -0.0012 × 842 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(5.6907)
= $296.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y581)
= Exp(a + b × X581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5758 + -0.0012 × 842 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(5.4142)
= $224.56
December 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5758 + -0.0012 × 1,318 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(5.1121)
= $166.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5758 + -0.0012 × 1,318 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(4.8356)
= $125.91
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.83% per annum.
- ICUI price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $103.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.23 (15.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.0401
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0522
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0522) – 1
= 23.22%
November 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0401 + 0.0009 × 1,632 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.5917)
= $98.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0401 + 0.0009 × 1,632 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.3829)
= $80.07
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0401 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.7619)
= $116.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0401 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.5531)
= $94.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 38.22% per annum.
- ICUI price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.