West Pharmaceutical Services Inc (WST)
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. is a designer and manufacturer of injectable pharmaceutical packaging and delivery systems. The company is headquartered in Exton, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.70% per annum.
- WST price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $355.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $121.13 (51.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.88% per annum.
- WST price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: February 15, 2023
a = 6.6516
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1452
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1452) – 1
= 78.77%
April 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y480)
= Exp(a + b × X480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6516 + -0.0008 × 696 + 2 × 0.1452)
= Exp(6.3756)
= $587.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y480)
= Exp(a + b × X480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6516 + -0.0008 × 696 – 2 × 0.1452)
= Exp(5.7946)
= $328.53
February 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,367 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6516 + -0.0008 × 1,367 + 2 × 0.1452)
= Exp(5.8294)
= $340.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,367 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6516 + -0.0008 × 1,367 – 2 × 0.1452)
= Exp(5.2485)
= $190.28
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.70% per annum.
- WST price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $355.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $121.13 (51.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 5.0278
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1252) – 1
= 65.00%
April 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0278 + 0.0005 × 1,075 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(5.8367)
= $342.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y743)
= Exp(a + b × X743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0278 + 0.0005 × 1,075 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(5.3359)
= $207.66
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0278 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(6.2258)
= $505.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0278 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(5.7250)
= $306.44
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.88% per annum.
- WST price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.