West Pharmaceutical Services Inc (WST)
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. is a designer and manufacturer of injectable pharmaceutical packaging and delivery systems. The company is headquartered in Exton, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.13% per annum.
- WST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $277.16 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.35 (4.59%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.91% per annum.
- WST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $32.28 (10.43%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 9.3109
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0285
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0285) – 1
= 12.08%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3109 + -0.0020 × 1,692 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(6.0485)
= $423.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3109 + -0.0020 × 1,692 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(5.9345)
= $377.85
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3109 + -0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(5.7896)
= $326.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3109 + -0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(5.6755)
= $291.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.13% per annum.
- WST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $277.16 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.35 (4.59%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 21, 2024
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 6.5214
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0185
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0185) – 1
= 7.70%
May 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5214 + -0.0004 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(5.8356)
= $342.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5214 + -0.0004 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(5.7614)
= $317.81
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5214 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(5.8094)
= $333.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5214 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(5.7352)
= $309.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.91% per annum.
- WST price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $32.28 (10.43%).