Align Technology Inc (ALGN)
Align Technology is a manufacturer of 3D digital scanners and the Invisalign clear aligners used in orthodontics. It is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.44% per annum.
- ALGN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $271.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $102.91 (61.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.29% per annum.
- ALGN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 23, 2020
End date: February 1, 2023
a = 7.5739
b = -0.0016
s = 0.2454
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2454) – 1
= 166.87%
November 23, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 553 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5739 + -0.0016 × 553 + 2 × 0.2454)
= Exp(7.1742)
= $1,305.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 553 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5739 + -0.0016 × 553 – 2 × 0.2454)
= Exp(6.1926)
= $489.10
February 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5739 + -0.0016 × 1,353 + 2 × 0.2454)
= Exp(5.8859)
= $359.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5739 + -0.0016 × 1,353 – 2 × 0.2454)
= Exp(4.9043)
= $134.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.44% per annum.
- ALGN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $271.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $102.91 (61.04%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 28, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 5.2228
b = 0.0003
s = 0.1796
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1796) – 1
= 105.12%
April 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2228 + 0.0003 × 1,074 + 2 × 0.1796)
= Exp(5.8702)
= $354.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2228 + 0.0003 × 1,074 – 2 × 0.1796)
= Exp(5.1517)
= $172.73
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2228 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1796)
= Exp(6.0714)
= $433.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2228 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1796)
= Exp(5.3530)
= $211.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.29% per annum.
- ALGN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.