Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE)
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.04% per annum.
- LITE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $42.59 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.58 (3.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.56% per annum.
- LITE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LITE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 5.8225
b = -0.0013
s = 0.1031
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1031) – 1
= 51.04%
November 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8225 + -0.0013 × 908 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(4.8776)
= $131.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y627)
= Exp(a + b × X627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8225 + -0.0013 × 908 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(4.4653)
= $86.94
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8225 + -0.0013 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(3.9015)
= $49.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8225 + -0.0013 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(3.4891)
= $32.76
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.04% per annum.
- LITE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $42.59 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.58 (3.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.4792
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0942
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0942) – 1
= 45.78%
November 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4792 + -0.0004 × 1,279 + 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(4.1972)
= $66.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4792 + -0.0004 × 1,279 – 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(3.8203)
= $45.62
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4792 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(3.9960)
= $54.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4792 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(3.6191)
= $37.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.56% per annum.
- LITE price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.