F5 Networks Inc (FFIV)
F5, Inc. is an American company that specializes in application delivery networking (ADN), application availability & performance, multi-cloud management, application security, network security, access & authorization and online fraud prevention. F5 is headquartered in Seattle, Washington, with additional development, manufacturing, and administrative offices worldwide.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.81% per annum.
- FFIV price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $171.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.76 (5.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.52% per annum.
- FFIV price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FFIV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: April 16, 2024
a = 3.6719
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0367
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0367) – 1
= 15.80%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6719 + 0.0009 × 1,399 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.9744)
= $144.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6719 + 0.0009 × 1,399 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(4.8277)
= $124.93
April 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6719 + 0.0009 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(5.3294)
= $206.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6719 + 0.0009 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0367)
= Exp(5.1827)
= $178.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.81% per annum.
- FFIV price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $171.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.76 (5.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2024
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 8.9827
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0284
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0284) – 1
= 12.03%
March 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9827 + -0.0021 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0284)
= Exp(5.3411)
= $208.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9827 + -0.0021 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0284)
= Exp(5.2275)
= $186.33
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9827 + -0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0284)
= Exp(5.2068)
= $182.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9827 + -0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0284)
= Exp(5.0932)
= $162.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.52% per annum.
- FFIV price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.