# Arlo Technologies (ARLO)

Arlo Technologies, Inc. provides smart connected devices to monitor environments in real time with a Wi-Fi or cellular connection in the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Asia Pacific regions. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.92% per annum.
- ARLO price at the close of July 19, 2024 was $16.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.74% per annum.
- ARLO price at the close of July 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (2.69%).

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of ARLO price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2022

End date: July 19, 2024

a = -0.9088

b = 0.0020

s = 0.2128

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1

= 106.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.2128) – 1

= 134.24%

#### September 22, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{800})

= Exp(a + b × X_{800} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,158 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.9088 + 0.0020 × 1,158 + 2 × 0.2128)

= Exp(1.8238)

= $6.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{800})

= Exp(a + b × X_{800} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,158 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.9088 + 0.0020 × 1,158 – 2 × 0.2128)

= Exp(0.9727)

= $2.64

#### July 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.9088 + 0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2128)

= Exp(3.1507)

= $23.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-0.9088 + 0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2128)

= Exp(2.2995)

= $9.97

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.92% per annum.
- ARLO price at the close of July 19, 2024 was $16.59 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: May 12, 2023

End date: July 19, 2024

a = 1.1054

b = 0.0008

s = 0.1308

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1

= 32.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.1308) – 1

= 68.74%

#### May 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{960})

= Exp(a + b × X_{960} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,390 + 2 × s)

= Exp(1.1054 + 0.0008 × 1,390 + 2 × 0.1308)

= Exp(2.4455)

= $11.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{960})

= Exp(a + b × X_{960} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,390 – 2 × s)

= Exp(1.1054 + 0.0008 × 1,390 – 2 × 0.1308)

= Exp(1.9223)

= $6.84

#### July 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(1.1054 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1308)

= Exp(2.7823)

= $16.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(1.1054 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1308)

= Exp(2.2591)

= $9.57

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.74% per annum.
- ARLO price at the close of July 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (2.69%).