Arlo Technologies (ARLO)
Arlo Technologies, Inc. provides smart connected devices to monitor environments in real time with a Wi-Fi or cellular connection in the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Asia Pacific regions. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 245.20% per annum.
- ARLO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $14.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.07 (12.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.28% per annum.
- ARLO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.20 (41.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARLO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: October 10, 2023
a = -2.9990
b = 0.0034
s = 0.2039
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 245.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2039) – 1
= 126.05%
September 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y850)
= Exp(a + b × X850 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9990 + 0.0034 × 1,232 + 2 × 0.2039)
= Exp(1.5907)
= $4.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y850)
= Exp(a + b × X850 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9990 + 0.0034 × 1,232 – 2 × 0.2039)
= Exp(0.7751)
= $2.17
October 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9990 + 0.0034 × 1,615 + 2 × 0.2039)
= Exp(2.8908)
= $18.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,113)
= Exp(a + b × X1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9990 + 0.0034 × 1,615 – 2 × 0.2039)
= Exp(2.0752)
= $7.97
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 245.20% per annum.
- ARLO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $14.23 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.07 (12.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 12, 2023
End date: February 28, 2024
a = 3.0449
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0748
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0748) – 1
= 34.85%
May 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0449 + -0.0005 × 1,464 + 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(2.4819)
= $11.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0449 + -0.0005 × 1,464 – 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(2.1829)
= $8.87
February 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0449 + -0.0005 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(2.3398)
= $10.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0449 + -0.0005 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(2.0407)
= $7.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.28% per annum.
- ARLO price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.20 (41.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.