Stock Price Trends

Arlo Technologies (ARLO)

Arlo Technologies, Inc. provides smart connected devices to monitor environments in real time with a Wi-Fi or cellular connection in the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Asia Pacific regions. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.92% per annum.
  • ARLO price at the close of July 19, 2024 was $16.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.74% per annum.
  • ARLO price at the close of July 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (2.69%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARLO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: July 19, 2024

a = -0.9088

b = 0.0020

s = 0.2128

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 106.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2128) – 1
= 134.24%

September 22, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9088 + 0.0020 × 1,158 + 2 × 0.2128)
= Exp(1.8238)
= $6.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9088 + 0.0020 × 1,158 – 2 × 0.2128)
= Exp(0.9727)
= $2.64

July 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9088 + 0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.2128)
= Exp(3.1507)
= $23.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9088 + 0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.2128)
= Exp(2.2995)
= $9.97

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.92% per annum.
  • ARLO price at the close of July 19, 2024 was $16.59 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 12, 2023
End date: July 19, 2024

a = 1.1054

b = 0.0008

s = 0.1308

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1308) – 1
= 68.74%

May 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,390 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1054 + 0.0008 × 1,390 + 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(2.4455)
= $11.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,390 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1054 + 0.0008 × 1,390 – 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(1.9223)
= $6.84

July 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1054 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(2.7823)
= $16.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1054 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1308)
= Exp(2.2591)
= $9.57

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.74% per annum.
  • ARLO price at the close of July 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.43 (2.69%).