ViaSat Inc (VSAT)
Viasat, Inc. provides worldwide broadband and communications products and services. The company is headquartered in Carlsbad, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.83% per annum.
- VSAT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $17.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.77 (11.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 655.48% per annum.
- VSAT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VSAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 10.9204
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0488
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0488) – 1
= 21.58%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9204 + -0.0045 × 1,679 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(3.4197)
= $30.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9204 + -0.0045 × 1,679 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(3.2243)
= $25.14
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9204 + -0.0045 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(2.8133)
= $16.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9204 + -0.0045 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0488)
= Exp(2.6179)
= $13.71
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.83% per annum.
- VSAT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $17.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.77 (11.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2024
End date: May 9, 2024
a = -7.2568
b = 0.0055
s = 0.0261
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0055) – 1
= 655.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0261) – 1
= 11.00%
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.2568 + 0.0055 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(2.7789)
= $16.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.2568 + 0.0055 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(2.6745)
= $14.50
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.2568 + 0.0055 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(2.9118)
= $18.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.2568 + 0.0055 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(2.8074)
= $16.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 655.48% per annum.
- VSAT price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.