NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)
NetScout Systems, Inc. provides service security and cybersecurity solutions to protect digital business services from disruption in the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Westford, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.95% per annum.
- NTCT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $20.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.45% per annum.
- NTCT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NTCT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.5350
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0799
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0799) – 1
= 37.66%
May 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5350 + -0.0008 × 1,100 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(3.7896)
= $44.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y760)
= Exp(a + b × X760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5350 + -0.0008 × 1,100 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(3.4700)
= $32.14
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5350 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(3.1922)
= $24.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5350 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(2.8725)
= $17.68
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.95% per annum.
- NTCT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $20.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 12, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.4525
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0697
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0697) – 1
= 32.16%
May 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4525 + -0.0014 × 1,464 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(3.5794)
= $35.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,010)
= Exp(a + b × X1,010 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4525 + -0.0014 × 1,464 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(3.3006)
= $27.13
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4525 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(3.0818)
= $21.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4525 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0697)
= Exp(2.8029)
= $16.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.45% per annum.
- NTCT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.