Stock Price Trends

NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)

NetScout Systems, Inc. is a leading provider of service security and cybersecurity solutions, dedicated to safeguarding digital business services from disruption across a global landscape, including the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Headquartered in Westford, Massachusetts, the company specializes in advanced analytics and real-time insights, enabling organizations to proactively manage and protect their IT assets amidst evolving cyber threats. With a robust portfolio of innovative technologies, NetScout plays a crucial role in ensuring the resilience of digital operations for enterprises and service providers worldwide.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.57% per annum.
  • NTCT price at the close of December 29, 2025 was $27.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 77.66% per annum.
  • NTCT price at the close of December 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NTCT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2024
End date: December 29, 2025

a = 2.2932

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0606

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.57%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0606) – 1
= 27.45%

April 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2932 + 0.0005 × 1,192 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.0524)
= $21.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2932 + 0.0005 × 1,192 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(2.8098)
= $16.61

December 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2932 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.3911)
= $29.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2932 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.1486)
= $23.30

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.57% per annum.
  • NTCT price at the close of December 29, 2025 was $27.57 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 10, 2025
End date: December 29, 2025

a = 0.4930

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0394

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 77.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0394) – 1
= 17.06%

July 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4930 + 0.0016 × 1,653 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(3.1745)
= $23.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4930 + 0.0016 × 1,653 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(3.0170)
= $20.43

December 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4930 + 0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(3.4454)
= $31.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4930 + 0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(3.2879)
= $26.79

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 77.66% per annum.
  • NTCT price at the close of December 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.