Viavi Solutions Inc (VIAV)
Viavi Solutions Inc. provides network testing, monitoring and assurance solutions to communications service providers, enterprises, network equipment manufacturers, government, civil, military and avionics customers worldwide. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.72% per annum.
- VIAV price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $7.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.21% per annum.
- VIAV price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VIAV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2021
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.4582
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0949
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0949) – 1
= 46.16%
May 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y508)
= Exp(a + b × X508 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4582 + -0.0007 × 736 + 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(3.1021)
= $22.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y508)
= Exp(a + b × X508 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4582 + -0.0007 × 736 – 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(2.7226)
= $15.22
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4582 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(2.2936)
= $9.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4582 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0949)
= Exp(1.9140)
= $6.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.72% per annum.
- VIAV price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $7.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 12.6932
b = -0.0059
s = 0.0205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0059) – 1
= -88.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.56%
March 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6932 + -0.0059 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(2.4120)
= $11.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6932 + -0.0059 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(2.3299)
= $10.28
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6932 + -0.0059 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(2.0371)
= $7.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6932 + -0.0059 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(1.9549)
= $7.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.21% per annum.
- VIAV price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.