Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO)
Cisco Systems, Inc. is an American multinational technology conglomerate headquartered in San Jose, California, in the center of Silicon Valley. Cisco develops, manufactures and sells networking hardware, software, telecommunications equipment and other high-technology services and products. Through its numerous acquired subsidiaries, such as OpenDNS, Webex, Jabber and Jasper, Cisco specializes in specific tech markets, such as the Internet of Things (IoT), domain security and energy management. On January 25, 2021, Cisco reincorporated in Delaware.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.12% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $47.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.71% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 7, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 4.6827
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0313
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -15.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0313) – 1
= 13.36%
August 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6827 + -0.0004 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.0441)
= $57.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6827 + -0.0004 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(3.9188)
= $50.34
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6827 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(3.9260)
= $50.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6827 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(3.8006)
= $44.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.12% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $47.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 16, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 3.8096
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0227
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0227) – 1
= 9.51%
November 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8096 + 0.0000 × 1,662 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(3.9323)
= $51.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8096 + 0.0000 × 1,662 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(3.8415)
= $46.59
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8096 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(3.9399)
= $51.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8096 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(3.8490)
= $46.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.71% per annum.
- CSCO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.