Stock Price Trends

Ciena Corp (CIEN)

Ciena Corporation is a leading provider of networking hardware, software, and services that optimize the transport and management of video, data, and voice traffic across global communications networks. With a strong focus on innovation and resilience in a rapidly evolving digital landscape, Ciena's advanced solutions enable service providers and enterprises to enhance their network efficiency and optimize user experiences. Headquartered in Hanover, Maryland, Ciena is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-capacity networking capabilities driven by the increasing volume of data traffic and the expansion of cloud-based services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1,053.13% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of December 4, 2025 was $195.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.23% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of December 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CIEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 5, 2025
End date: December 4, 2025

a = -6.8272

b = 0.0067

s = 0.0855

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0067) – 1
= 1,053.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0855) – 1
= 40.78%

June 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8272 + 0.0067 × 1,641 + 2 × 0.0855)
= Exp(4.3366)
= $76.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8272 + 0.0067 × 1,641 – 2 × 0.0855)
= Exp(3.9945)
= $54.30

December 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8272 + 0.0067 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0855)
= Exp(5.5558)
= $258.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8272 + 0.0067 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0855)
= Exp(5.2137)
= $183.78

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1,053.13% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of December 4, 2025 was $195.73 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 24, 2025
End date: December 4, 2025

a = 2.8430

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0449

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.66%

October 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8430 + 0.0013 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.3248)
= $205.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8430 + 0.0013 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.1453)
= $171.63

December 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8430 + 0.0013 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.3799)
= $216.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8430 + 0.0013 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.2004)
= $181.34

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.23% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of December 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.