Stock Price Trends

Ciena Corp (CIEN)

Ciena Corporation is a leading provider of networking hardware, software, and services that optimize the transport and management of video, data, and voice traffic across global communications networks. With a strong focus on innovation and resilience in a rapidly evolving digital landscape, Ciena's advanced solutions enable service providers and enterprises to enhance their network efficiency and optimize user experiences. Headquartered in Hanover, Maryland, Ciena is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-capacity networking capabilities driven by the increasing volume of data traffic and the expansion of cloud-based services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.19% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $169.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $37.63 (28.49%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,001.61% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CIEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 6, 2023
End date: October 10, 2025

a = 2.5522

b = 0.0011

s = 0.1488

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1488) – 1
= 81.37%

June 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y658)
= Exp(a + b × X658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 957 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5522 + 0.0011 × 957 + 2 × 0.1488)
= Exp(3.9162)
= $50.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y658)
= Exp(a + b × X658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 957 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5522 + 0.0011 × 957 – 2 × 0.1488)
= Exp(3.3209)
= $27.68

October 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5522 + 0.0011 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.1488)
= Exp(4.8712)
= $130.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5522 + 0.0011 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.1488)
= Exp(4.2758)
= $71.94

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.19% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $169.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $37.63 (28.49%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 5, 2025
End date: October 21, 2025

a = -6.9202

b = 0.0066

s = 0.0878

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0066) – 1
= 1,001.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0878) – 1
= 42.09%

June 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.9202 + 0.0066 × 1,687 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.3450)
= $77.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,687 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.9202 + 0.0066 × 1,687 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(3.9938)
= $54.26

October 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.9202 + 0.0066 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(5.2522)
= $190.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.9202 + 0.0066 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.9009)
= $134.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,001.61% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.