Stock Price Trends

Ciena Corp (CIEN)

Ciena Corporation is a leading provider of networking hardware, software, and services that optimize the transport and management of video, data, and voice traffic across global communications networks. With a strong focus on innovation and resilience in a rapidly evolving digital landscape, Ciena's advanced solutions enable service providers and enterprises to enhance their network efficiency and optimize user experiences. Headquartered in Hanover, Maryland, Ciena is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-capacity networking capabilities driven by the increasing volume of data traffic and the expansion of cloud-based services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 576.95% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of February 10, 2026 was $298.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 301.33% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of February 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CIEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 27, 2025
End date: February 10, 2026

a = -3.9179

b = 0.0052

s = 0.1081

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0052) – 1
= 576.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1081) – 1
= 54.11%

March 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9179 + 0.0052 × 1,505 + 2 × 0.1081)
= Exp(4.1838)
= $65.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9179 + 0.0052 × 1,505 – 2 × 0.1081)
= Exp(3.7513)
= $42.58

February 10, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9179 + 0.0052 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1081)
= Exp(5.8605)
= $350.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.9179 + 0.0052 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1081)
= Exp(5.4280)
= $227.69

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 576.95% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of February 10, 2026 was $298.70 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 13, 2025
End date: February 10, 2026

a = -1.3507

b = 0.0038

s = 0.0523

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 301.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0523) – 1
= 23.26%

October 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3507 + 0.0038 × 1,705 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(5.2450)
= $189.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,705 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3507 + 0.0038 × 1,705 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(5.0359)
= $153.84

February 10, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3507 + 0.0038 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(5.7019)
= $299.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3507 + 0.0038 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(5.4928)
= $242.94

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 301.33% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of February 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.