Stock Price Trends

Ciena Corp (CIEN)

Ciena Corporation is a leading provider of networking hardware, software, and services that optimize the transport and management of video, data, and voice traffic across global communications networks. With a strong focus on innovation and resilience in a rapidly evolving digital landscape, Ciena's advanced solutions enable service providers and enterprises to enhance their network efficiency and optimize user experiences. Headquartered in Hanover, Maryland, Ciena is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for high-capacity networking capabilities driven by the increasing volume of data traffic and the expansion of cloud-based services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1,179.02% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of November 20, 2025 was $176.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.87% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of November 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CIEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 6, 2025
End date: November 19, 2025

a = -7.4099

b = 0.0070

s = 0.0842

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0070) – 1
= 1,179.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0842) – 1
= 40.06%

June 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.4099 + 0.0070 × 1,656 + 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(4.3219)
= $75.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.4099 + 0.0070 × 1,656 – 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(3.9850)
= $53.78

November 19, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.4099 + 0.0070 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(5.4810)
= $240.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.4099 + 0.0070 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(5.1441)
= $171.42

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1,179.02% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of November 20, 2025 was $176.45 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2025
End date: November 20, 2025

a = 21.1377

b = -0.0087

s = 0.0353

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0087) – 1
= -95.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0353) – 1
= 15.17%

November 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(21.1377 + -0.0087 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.4119)
= $224.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(21.1377 + -0.0087 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.2707)
= $194.54

November 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(21.1377 + -0.0087 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.2897)
= $198.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(21.1377 + -0.0087 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.1484)
= $172.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.87% per annum.
  • CIEN price at the close of November 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.