Stock Price Trends

SunPower Corporation (SPWR)

SunPower Corporation offers solar solutions globally.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.10% per annum.
  • SPWR price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $2.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.12 (4.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9,505.48% per annum.
  • SPWR price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 10, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024

a = 8.8314

b = -0.0044

s = 0.1118

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0044) – 1
= -80.10%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1118) – 1
= 56.41%

November 10, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,266 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8314 + -0.0044 × 1,266 + 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(3.4550)
= $31.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,266 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8314 + -0.0044 × 1,266 – 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(3.0077)
= $20.24

May 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8314 + -0.0044 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(1.0354)
= $2.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8314 + -0.0044 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(0.5881)
= $1.80

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 80.10% per annum.
  • SPWR price at the close of May 23, 2024 was $2.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.12 (4.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 22, 2024
End date: May 13, 2024

a = -21.7919

b = 0.0125

s = 0.0522

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0125) – 1
= 9,505.48%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0522) – 1
= 23.23%

April 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-21.7919 + 0.0125 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(0.7619)
= $2.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-21.7919 + 0.0125 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(0.5531)
= $1.74

May 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-21.7919 + 0.0125 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(1.0246)
= $2.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-21.7919 + 0.0125 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(0.8157)
= $2.26

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9,505.48% per annum.
  • SPWR price at the close of May 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.