SunPower Corporation (SPWR)
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Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 79.71% per annum.
- SPWR price at the close of December 8, 2023 was $4.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.34% per annum.
- SPWR price at the close of December 8, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2022
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 9.4751
b = -0.0044
s = 0.1096
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0044) – 1
= -79.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1096) – 1
= 55.02%
November 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4751 + -0.0044 × 1,431 + 2 × 0.1096)
= Exp(3.4401)
= $31.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y988)
= Exp(a + b × X988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4751 + -0.0044 × 1,431 – 2 × 0.1096)
= Exp(3.0017)
= $20.12
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4751 + -0.0044 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1096)
= Exp(1.7224)
= $5.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4751 + -0.0044 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1096)
= Exp(1.2840)
= $3.61
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2023
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 12.5493
b = -0.0061
s = 0.1003
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0061) – 1
= -89.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1003) – 1
= 49.38%
June 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5493 + -0.0061 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.1003)
= Exp(2.6964)
= $14.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5493 + -0.0061 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.1003)
= Exp(2.2951)
= $9.93
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5493 + -0.0061 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1003)
= Exp(1.5617)
= $4.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5493 + -0.0061 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1003)
= Exp(1.1603)
= $3.19